The Autumn Budget lands 28 October — what it could mean for MTD wave 2
The Chancellor's first Budget arrives three weeks from now, with MTD wave 2 (£30k+ sole traders) due to start 6 April 2027. Here is what businesses and accountants should watch for — and what to do either way.
The Autumn Budget is confirmed for Wednesday 28 October 2026, with the OBR forecast published the same day. For most readers of a software comparison site, Budgets are background noise. This one is different, because it is the last full fiscal event before the second wave of Making Tax Digital for Income Tax goes live on 6 April 2027 — covering sole traders and landlords with income between £30,000 and £50,000.
Wave 1 (£50k+) is already in force. The question hanging over wave 2 is not whether it happens — no credible signal points to a delay — but what the supporting detail looks like: easements, penalty regimes, and whether quarterly-reporting friction is acknowledged at all.
Three things to watch on the 28th
1 — Penalty softening. The points-based late-submission system is bedding in. Any Budget measure smoothing the transition would be news; silence means the published regime stands.
2 — The £30k threshold freeze. Fiscal drag is quietly pushing more sole traders over £30,000 each year. Every Budget that leaves thresholds alone enlarges wave 2 without a single announcement.
3 — Software ecosystem signals. Watch for anything touching HMRC-recognised software support — grants, reliefs, or simply confirmation that the recognition framework holds. Vendors plan (and price) around it.
What to do regardless of what the Chancellor says
If you are in wave 2's catchment, the timeline is unforgiving either way: software chosen and bank feeds reconciled well before 6 April 2027 leaves you calm; the same work done in the last fortnight of March leaves you in a queue with everyone else. The honest move is treating the Budget as a possible refinement, never a rescue.
We keep the live timeline, penalties and common mistakes on our MTD for Income Tax hub, refreshed after each fiscal event — the next update is scheduled within a week of the Budget. And if the whole thing starts with "which software", start with our accounting and payroll reviews.